Modeling and Technical Analysis

The Reference Scenario

Much of the energy strategy’s Phase 1 engagement focused on selecting the best available data for modeling inputs and assumptions for a least-cost Reference Scenario to create a point of comparison for the other scenarios. Unlike some other studies that define a reference scenario as a business-as-usual path that may fall short of meeting energy policy goals, the energy strategy Reference Scenario was structured to help understand what a least-cost pathway to achieving those goals might look like. The Reference was developed to understand what actions it would take to achieve Oregon’s energy policy objectives, and then use it as a point of comparison to other scenarios. In this way the modeling explored different pathways to achieving Oregon’s goals, as directed by HB 3630.

The starting point for the modeling was to capture energy demand across all sectors of the economy, and how that demand is met by different energy sources – a sector-based analysis. Greenhouse gas emissions were attributed to all energy resources used in serving that demand. However, the energy model did not evaluate emissions unrelated to the production of energy nor incorporate the potential role of biological sequestration—such as storing carbon in land sinks and on natural and working lands—as a decarbonization strategy. Those emission reductions or natural climate solutions are part of other work being done by ODOE.

Energy Demand

A snapshot of energy demand share by sector in 2024, the baseline year for the modeling. Transportation accounted for the greatest share of energy demand (44 percent), followed by the residential sector (19 percent), industry and agriculture sector (16 percent), commercial sector (12 percent), and tech loads (9 percent).

Energy for these sectors was supplied by a variety of technologies and fuels. The fuel mix of all energy consumed in Oregon in 2024 is represented by the left-most column.

The energy strategy modeling occurred during a time of rapid load growth and significant concern that the pace of growth in electricity demand — from new tech loads in particular — will outstrip the pace of growth in electricity supply and the ability of utilities, independent power producers, and the Bonneville Power Administration to construct new transmission infrastructure and/or electricity generation. However, important advancements have also happened during this period to move toward day-ahead electricity markets, which are expected to share electricity resources across broader regional footprints more efficiently and at lower cost to ratepayers.

At the same time, the sheer pace and volume of resource development needed in Oregon and across the Pacific Northwest significantly exceed what we have experienced over the past few decades. This alone is likely to increase already rising electricity rates. Policy decisions by the federal government in 2025 have made building new resources more difficult and more expensive. This includes reducing or eliminating investment and production tax credits for renewable resources, as well as hundreds of millions of dollars of support for energy reliability infrastructure in Oregon – and billions of dollars throughout the region.

The modeling accounted for significant load growth from tech loads and other economic activity but was completed before these drastic changes in federal policy occurred. The model sought the least-cost resource mix to reliably meet load growth while also meeting the clean energy and climate policy objectives of Oregon and many other states. Wind and solar play an important role in the least-cost resource portfolio selected by the model because they are the least-cost resources available. Despite withdrawals of federal support for these resources, they are likely to remain a competitive part of the region’s electricity portfolio moving forward.